The reasoning is sound. I like this. Alot.
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
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I'm leery of this kind of speculation. Don't get me wrong, I hope Mr. Root has underestimated the Romney margin of victory. However, his common sense doesn't take into consideration those die-hards who will pull the "D" (or "R", for that matter) lever in the polling booth regardless of the candidate. I was back East in the DC area for the past two weeks. I've never seen so many Obama 2012 bumper stickers. I say this as a life long PRC resident, too. Even without electricity for 7-8 days and temps above 95F with corresponding humidity, the comments I heard most were "the government will step in and fix this". I'm a sissy and didn't want to start fights, but I was appalled at the number of folks I talked to who thought that the government was the source of all benefits and help.
ReplyDeleteBut, Lambert, you were in DC! The government IS the source of all benefits and help in DC. Everyone there is on government support - either working for them or voting for them.
DeleteI think this country is so big, we easily forget the neighborhood and towns where people still hold American values. Remember, Obama didn't win by that big a margin.
I think this is a pretty good assessment. What worries me is an "October Surprise"...like war between Israel and Iran. THAT would put Obama back in. I just don't think he is omnipotent enough to "arrange" it. If it happens coincidentally, though, we're screwed.
Hell, I could have written that article. This guy believes what I believe, will vote for who I vote for and I think he is right.
ReplyDeleteOne area you cannot underestimate Obama in is gamesmanship. He has had 2 people removed form the ballot, post primary and thus won largely unopposed. There very well could be an October surprise and if there is, you can bet it was orchestrated.
Well, yesterday the big news out of Boston was that the Obama camp is accusing Romney of felony behavior in connection with his time at Bain Capital. It is entirely false -- as in they are lying -- but they are loud and unapologetic. At the very least, Romney will have to waste time and resources to fight the accusation and we all know that many voters will never hear or understand his side of it, they will just remember the accusation.
DeleteObama plays dirty. Chicago dirty. Stalin dirty.
Agreed, but I still feel Mr. Root is correct. Obama still has steep walls to climb to make Romney appear WORSE than he is.
DeleteThat is the standard Dem incumbent operating procedure, sleight of hand. Never mind me, did you see the other guy?
BUSH!
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